000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041542
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jul 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W north of 02N, moving 
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted north of 03N between 80W and 92W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W north of 02N into 
southwest Mexico, moving west at around 10 kt. Isolated 
convection is within 60 nm.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 12N106W to 08N123W.
ITCZ continues from 08N123W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 18N between 99W to 129W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient supports mainly gentle to locally
moderate NW-N winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas 
are in the 4 to 5 ft range in mixed long period swell. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds are noted over the Gulf of California 
with seas of 2-3 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds with seas 
in the 4 to 6 ft range are elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail 
over the offshore waters off Baja California, with light to 
gentle winds dominating the remainder of the offshore waters 
through early week. NW swell will build seas off Baja California
Norte by midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with
gentle to locally moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail
south of 10N through early week, with light to gentle breezes 
farther north. Moderate SW swell will persist across the region, 
building in Ecuadorian waters by mid week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak pressure gradient over the area is maintaining gentle 
to locally moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is noted south of the 
monsoon trough, with moderate SE flow south of the ITCZ. 
Southerly swell has crossed the equator, maintaining seas to near
8 ft over the far southern waters west of 120W. Little change 
in wind and seas are forecast through early next week.

$$
AReinhart/ALevine