199 
AXPZ20 KNHC 040102
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W north of 02N through 
western Panama, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N between 80W and
85W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W north of 02N into 
southwest Mexico, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 96W and 
100W, and from 10N to 18N between 95W and 100W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12.5N107W to 09N121W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N121W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between
80W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N 
between 96W and 100W, from 10N to 20N between 96W and 109W, and 
from 08N to 11N between 121W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient supports mainly gentle to locally
moderate NW-N winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas 
are in the 4 to 5 ft range in mixed long period swell. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds are noted over the Gulf of California 
with seas of 2-3 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds with seas 
in the 4 to 6 ft range are elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail 
over the offshore waters off Baja California, with light to 
gentle winds dominating the remainder of the offshore waters 
through early next week. NW swell will build seas off Baja 
California Norte by the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with
gentle to locally moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail
south of 10N through early next week, with light to gentle 
breezes farther north. Moderate SW swell will persist across the 
region, building in Ecuadorian waters by mid week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is evident near 135W from 15N to 20N. Along with
relatively weak high pressure farther north, this pattern is
maintaining mainly gentle trades winds north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ, reaching a moderate breeze in the vicinity of
the trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is noted south of 
the monsoon trough, with moderate SE flow south of the ITCZ. 
Southerly swell has crossed the equator, maintaining seas to near
8 ft over the far southern waters west of 120W. Seas to 8 ft 
continue from 10N to 15N between 100W and 110W, in SW swell. 
Little change in winds and seas are forecast through early next 
week.

$$
AL