000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032031
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W north of 05N through
western Panama, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted north of 04N east of 83W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 98W north of 02N into
southwest Mexico, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 95W and 
97W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N105W to 08N125W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N125W to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
03N to 08N east of 82W. Scattered moderate convection is evident 
from 12N to 15N between 100W and 105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient supports mainly gentle to locally
moderate NW-N winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas 
are in the 4 to 5 ft range in mixed long period swell. Light to 
gentle southerly winds are noted over the Gulf of California 
with slight seas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds with seas in 
the 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail 
over the offshore waters off Baja California, with light to 
gentle winds dominating the remainder of the offshore waters 
through early next week. NW swell will build seas off Baja 
California Norte by the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough
with mainly light to gentle winds south of the monsoon trough.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail
south of 10N through early next week, with light to gentle 
breezes farther north. Moderate SW swell will persist across the 
region, building in Ecuadorian waters by mid week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is evident near 135W from 15N to 20N. Along with
relatively weak high pressure farther north, this pattern is
maintaining mainly gentle trades winds north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is noted 
south of the monsoon trough, with moderate SE flow south of the 
ITCZ. Southerly swell has crossed the equator, maintaining seas 
to near 8 ft over the far southern waters west of 120W. A pair of 
earlier altimeter satellite passes confirmed seas to 8 ft 
continued from 10N to 15N between 100W and 110W, in SW swell.
Little change in winds and seas are forecast through early next
week.

$$
Christensen