000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031550
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W south of Mexico, moving 
west at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 14N to 16N between 98W and 100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N102W to 14N112W to
10N125W. The ITCZ continues from 10N125W to 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N 
east of 82W. Scattered moderate convection is evident north of
15N between 98W and 105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient supports mainly gentle to locally
moderate NW-N winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas 
are in the 4 to 5 ft range in mixed long period swell. Light to 
gentle winds are noted over the Gulf of California with slight 
seas. Mainly light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft are
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail 
over the offshore waters off Baja California, with light to 
gentle winds dominating the remainder of the offshore waters 
through early next week. NW swell will build seas off Baja 
California Norte by the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough
with mainly light to gentle winds south of the monsoon trough.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail
south of 10N through early next week, with light to gentle 
breezes farther north. Moderate SW swell will persist across the 
region, building in Ecuadorian waters by Tue. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient is weak north of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ, with light to gentle winds prevailing. Gentle to moderate 
southerly flow is noted south of the monsoon trough, with
moderate SE flow south of the ITCZ. Southerly swell has crossed
the equator, maintaining seas to near 8 ft over the far southern
waters west of 120W. Seas are also reaching 8 ft from 07N to 10N
between 103W and 110W in lingering southerly swell. Seas of 4-7 
ft prevail elsewhere. Little change in winds and seas are 
forecast into the weekend.


$$
Christensen