000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030116
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W roughly south of the 
Mexico- Guatemala border, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N 
to 14N between 92W and 96W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W from 07N to 17N, moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
12N to 14N between 104W and 107W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N95W to 12N105W to 
10N127W. The ITCZ continues from 10N127W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 83W and 90W,
and from 03N to 15N between 90W and 112W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to gentle NW-N 
winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are in the 4 
to 5 ft range in mixed long period swell. Light to gentle winds 
are noted over the Gulf of California with slight seas. Mainly 
light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 5 ft are elsewhere 
over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will dominate 
the offshore waters through early next week, with moderate 
mostly SW swell off southern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. An altimeter satellite pass
showed seas are still 4 to 6 ft off Central America. This is due
primarily to SW swell lingering over the region. Gentle breezes
are observed in most areas. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail
south of 10N through early next week, with light to gentle 
breezes farther north. Moderate SW swell will persist across the 
region, building in Ecuadorian waters by Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient is weak north of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ, with light to gentle winds prevailing. Moderate southerly 
flow is noted south of the monsoon trough, reaching moderate to 
fresh SW winds between 95W and 110W where 6 to 8 ft seas were
observed by an altimeter pass at 17 UTC. The enhanced SW flow is
due to lowering surface pressure in this area along the monsoon 
trough, related in part to the tropical wave passing westward 
over the region. 

Little change in winds is forecast for the remainder of the week
into the weekend. A moderate southerly swell will reach the 
equator by the end of the week into the weekend, building seas to
around 8 ft there.

$$
AL