000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W S of 20N, moving west at
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 89W and 934W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W from 02N to 17N, moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
14N to 18N between 100W and 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N102W to 11N132W. 
The ITCZ continues from 11N132W to 10N140W. In addition to the
convection described in the Tropical Wave section above, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N 
between 93W and 103W, and from 10N to 12N between 106W and 111W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to gentle NW-N 
winds west of the Baja California peninsula with locally moderate
winds along the coast. Seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range in mixed 
long period swell. Light to gentle winds are noted over the Gulf
of California with slight seas. Mainly light to gentle winds 
with seas in the 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters 
off Mexico.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will dominate 
the offshore waters through early next week, with moderate 
mostly SW swell off southern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the offshore
waters from Guatemala and El Salvador, related to the 
interactions of the monsoon trough with the tropical wave passing
through the region, in a moisture-rich environment. Moderate to 
locally fresh NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region with 
seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate S-SW 
winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the waters south of the 
monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will persist north of 
the monsoon trough through early next week. Gentle to moderate 
southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough through 
early next week. Moderate SW swell will persist across the 
region, building in Ecuadorian waters by Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient is weak north of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ, with light to gentle winds prevailing. Moderate southerly 
flow is noted south of the monsoon trough, reaching moderate to 
fresh SW winds between 95W and 110W where 6 to 8 ft seas are 
evident. The enhanced SW flow is due to lowering surface pressure
in this area along the monsoon trough, related in part to the 
tropical wave passing westward over the region. 

Little change in winds is forecast for the remainder of the week
into the weekend. A moderate southerly swell will reach the 
equator by the end of the week into the weekend, building seas to
around 8 ft there.

$$
Christensen