000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020842
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W S of 20N, moving west at
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 86W and 94W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W from 02N to 17N, moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 08N to 18N between 100W and 107W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12.5N100W to 11N132W. 
The ITCZ continues from 11N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 14N between 86W and
99W, and from 08N to 18N between 100W and 107W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 110W and 
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to gentle NW-N 
winds west of the Baja California peninsula with locally moderate
winds along the coast. Seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range in mixed 
long period swell. Light to gentle winds are noted over the Gulf
of California with slight seas. Mainly light to gentle winds 
with seas in the 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters 
off Mexico.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will dominate 
the offshore waters through early next week, with moderate 
mostly SW swell off southern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the offshore
waters from Costa Rica to El Salvador, related to the
interactions of the monsoon trough with the tropical wave passing
through the region, in a moisture-rich environment. Moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region with 
seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate S-SW 
winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the waters south of the 
monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue 
in the Papagayo region into Fri with light to gentle winds 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough continuing through early 
next week. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south 
of the monsoon trough through early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough, related to an upper low, is noted from 21N131W
to 12N129W. The pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge
of high pressure to the north is supporting moderate winds north
of 10N and west of 130W, with 5 to 6 ft seas. Otherwise, the 
pressure gradient is weak north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, 
with light to gentle winds prevailing. Moderate southerly flow is
noted south of the monsoon trough, reaching moderate to fresh SW
winds between 95W and 110W where 6 to 8 ft seas are evident. The
enhanced SW flow is due to lowering surface pressure in this 
area along the monsoon trough, related in part to the tropical 
wave passing westward over the region. 

Little change in winds is forecast for the remainder of the week
into the weekend. A moderate southerly swell will reach the 
equator by the end of the week into the weekend, building seas to
around 8 ft there.

$$
AL