000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85/86W north of the Equator into northwest Costa Rica and Nicaragua, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 84W and 90W. . The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W from 02N to 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 90W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N100W to 09N133W. The ITCZ continues from 09N133W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 15N between 84W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 95W and 110W, and from 08N to 12N between 110W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to gentle NW-N winds west of the Baja California peninsula with locally moderate winds along the coast. Seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range in mixed long period swell. Light to gentle winds are noted over the Gulf of California with slight seas. Mainly light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere ver the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will dominate the offshore waters through early next week, with moderate mostly SW swell off southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to El Salvador, related to the interactions of the monsoon trough with the tropical wave passing through the region, in a moisture-rich environment. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with seas 3 to 5 ft in mixed long period swell. Moderate S-SW winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the waters south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region into Fri with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough continuing through early next week. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough, related to an upper low, is evident from roughly 15N to 20N between 125W and 130W. This is supporting moderate NE winds north of 10N and west of 130W, between the trough and high pressure north of the area, with 5 to 6 ft seas. The trough is also breaking up the ridge and allowing minimal trade wind flow farther south into the tropics. Moderate southerly flow is noted roughly south of 10N, reaching moderate to fresh SW winds between 95W and 110W where 6 to 8 ft seas are evident. The enhanced SW flow is due to lowering surface pressure in this area along the monsoon trough, related in part to the tropical wave passing westward over the region. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along the monsoon trough except for between roughly 120W and 135W, due to subsident flow aloft on the west side of the upper low centered near 20N125W. Little change in winds is forecast for the remainder of the week into the weekend. A moderate southerly swell will reach the equator by the end of the week into the weekend, building seas to around 8 ft there. $$ AL