000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010841 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 82W north of 01N across portions of Panama, moving W at around 10 kt. The wave merged with another wave that was formerly along 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 12N E of 90W. A tropical wave is near 101W north of 02N to SW Mexico, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 90W and 112W, and N of 12N between 97W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 13N105W to 10N131W. The ITCZ continues from 10N131W to 09N140W. Aside the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 111W and 121W, and from 06N to 10N W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to gentle NW-N winds west of the Baja California peninsula with locally moderate winds along the coast. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range in mixed long period swell. Fresh to strong SE winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish to moderate winds Thu morning with seas subsiding from 5 ft to 3 ft. Mainly light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere from Chiapas to Jalisco offshore waters. For the forecast, southerly moderate flow in the Gulf of California will diminish Thu as the Remnants of Enrique completely dissipate. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the remainder offshore waters through the end of the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with seas 3 to 5 ft in mixed long period swell. Moderate S-SW winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the waters south of the monsoon trough. Two tropical waves, one crossing Costa Rica and another moving across Panama will merge tonight. Heavy showers and tstms, and gust to gale force winds are in the vicinity of these waves as indicated by satellite imagery and scatterometer data. See the tropical waves section for further details. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Fri with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough continuing through the end of the weekend. Except in the area of convection associated with the tropical waves, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface ridge is over the NW forecast waters supporting moderate NE to E winds N of 20N and W of 130W. Latest altimeter data show seas in the 5 to 6 ft range in that region. Elsewhere, N of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle and variable. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh winds dominate with seas to 7 ft. Little change in winds is forecast for the remainder of the week into the weekend. A moderate southerly swell will reach the equator by the end of the week into the weekend, building seas to around 8 ft there. $$ Ramos