000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010335
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0310 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 85W north of 02N across portions of 
Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras, moving W at around 10 kt. 
The wave is forecast to merge with another wave along 80W
tonight. Numerous moderate to strong convection, scattered tstms
and gust to gale force winds are N of 02N E of 90W. 

A tropical wave is near 100W north of 02N to southern Mexico, 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 90W and 100W, and
from 05N to 12N between 100W and 111W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 13N110W to 10N130W to
09N133W. The ITCZ continues from 09N133W to 08N140W. Aside the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 110W and 130W, and
from 06N to 09N W of 135W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to gentle NW-N 
winds west of the Baja California peninsula with locally moderate
winds along the coast. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range in mixed 
long period swell. Fresh to strong SE winds in the northern Gulf
of California will diminish to moderate winds Thu morning with
seas subsiding from 5 ft to 3 ft. Mainly light to gentle 
variable winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere from 
Chiapas to Jalisco offshore waters.

For the forecast, southerly moderate flow in the Gulf of 
California will diminish Thu as the Remnants of Enrique 
completely dissipate. Light to gentle variable winds will 
dominate the remainder offshore waters through the end of the 
weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are over the Papagayo
region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with seas 3 to 5 ft in 
mixed long period swell. Moderate S-SW winds with seas of 4 to 6 
ft dominate the waters south of the monsoon trough. Two tropical
waves, one crossing Costa Rica and another moving across Panama
will merge tonight. Heavy showers and tstms, and gust to gale
force winds are in the vicinity of these waves as indicated by
satellite imagery and scatterometer data. See the tropical waves
section for further details.  

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue 
in the Papagayo region through Fri with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough continuing through the end
of the weekend. Except in the area of convection associated with
the tropical waves, gentle to moderate southerly flow will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough through Sun night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the section above for details on the Remnants of
Enrique located over the southern Gulf of California and Baja
California Sur.

A surface trough is analyzed from 22N120W to 18N128W. Otherwise,
a broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the convergence
zone. Moderate to fresh N-NE flow prevails north of 20N and west
of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the 
convergence zone. Moderate to fresh southerly flow prevails south
of the convergence zone. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range 
in mixed long period swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken as the
Remnants of Enrique completely dissipate while shifting W-NW 
allowing for winds to diminish slightly Thu. The surface trough 
north of the convergence zone will linger through the end of the 
week. Little change in winds is then forecast for the remainder 
of the week into the weekend. A moderate southerly swell will 
reach the equator by the end of the week into the weekend, 
building seas to around 8 ft there.

$$
Ramos