000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302045
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Remnants Of Enrique is centered near 24.5N 110.3W at 30/2100 UTC
moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt.
There is no significant convection associated with the Remnants
of Enrique. The Remnants of Enrique are forecast to completely
dissipate by Thu morning.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 85W north of 04N across portions of 
Costa Rica and Honduras, moving W at around 10 kt. Numerous 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 11N 
between 77W and 89W. 

A tropical wave is near 98W/99W north of 03N to across portions
of southern Mexico, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 
98W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
1010 mb low pressure near 08N80W 10N100W, then resumes from 
17N100W to 09N130W. The ITCZ continues from 09N130W to 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 
90W and 96W, within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 
110W and 123W, and from 09N to 11N between 126W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the section above for details on the Remnants of
Enrique.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to 
gentle NW-N winds west of the Baja California peninsula with 
locally moderate winds along the coast. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft
range in mixed long period swell. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
in the central and northern Gulf of California with seas to 5 
ft. The entrance of the Gulf is being affected by the Remnants of
Enrique, which are generating seas to 7 ft. Mainly light to 
gentle variable winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere 
from Chiapas to Jalisco offshore waters.

For the forecast, southerly flow in the Gulf of California will 
diminish Thu as the Remnants of Enrique completely dissipate. 
Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the remainder 
offshore waters through the end of the weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are over the Papagayo
region with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with seas 4 to 6 ft in 
mixed long period swell. Moderate S-SW winds with seas of 4 to 7
ft dominate the waters south of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue 
in the Papagayo region through Fri with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate southerly
flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough. A moderate 
southerly swell will arrive west of Ecuador by the end of the 
week, subsiding later during the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the section above for details on the Remnants of
Enrique located over the southern Gulf of California and Baja
California Sur.

A surface trough is analyzed from 22N120W to 18N128W. Otherwise,
a broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the convergence
zone. Moderate to fresh N-NE flow prevails north of 20N and west
of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the 
convergence zone. Moderate to fresh southerly flow prevails south
of the convergence zone. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range 
in mixed long period swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken as the
Remnants of Enrique completely dissipate while shifting W-NW 
allowing for winds to diminish slightly Thu. The surface trough 
north of the convergence zone will linger through the end of the 
week. Little change in winds is then forecast for the remainder 
of the week into the weekend. A moderate southerly swell will 
reach the equator by the end of the week into the weekend, 
building seas to around 8 ft there.

$$
Lewitsky