000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291508 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Enrique is centered near 22.5N 107.6W at 29/1500 UTC moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Maximum seas are 15 ft, with the highest seas located between Cabo Corrientes and the entrance to the Gulf of California. Isolated moderate convection is all that remains in association with Enrique from 24N to 26N in the Gulf of California. Enrique is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Wed morning, and dissipate Thu afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 82W/83W from 05N northward across western Panama and eastern Costa Rica into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between the coast of Costa Rica and 87W, with similar convection from 10N to 14N between the coast of Central America and 91W. A tropical wave is near 100W from 04N northward to southern Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 91W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 92W to 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from well south-southwest of Tropical Storm Enrique near 15N110W to 11N120W to 08N135W. The ITCZ continues from 08N135W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to the monsoon trough between 110W and 118W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 102W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on Tropical Storm Enrique. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to gentle NW-N winds west of the Baja California peninsula with seas in the 4 to 7 ft range in mixed long period swells. For the forecast, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail, except moderate NW-N west of Baja California Norte, and moderate to locally fresh southerly flow in the Gulf of California through Thu. Seas will subside slightly through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail north of 07N/08N, with moderate to locally fresh S-SW flow south of 07N/08N. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range in mixed long period swell. For the forecast, light to moderate winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to locally fresh offshore in the Papagayo region during the late night and early morning hours through early Fri. Mainly moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough. A moderate southerly swell will arrive west of Ecuador by the end of the week, subsiding later during the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the section above for details on Tropical Storm Enrique located offshore of Mexico. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge covers the waters west of 125W with moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds north of the convergence zone. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the convergence zone. An area of fresh to strong winds is noted from roughly 09N to 16N between 103W and 113W. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly flow prevails south of the convergence zone. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed long period swell. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken as Enrique also weakens allowing for winds to diminish slightly Wed. Little change in winds is then forecast for the remainder of the week into the weekend. A moderate southerly swell will breach the equator by the end of the week into the weekend, building seas to around 8 ft there. $$ Lewitsky