000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282130 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jun 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Enrique is centered near 20.7N 107.3W at 28/2100 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 90 NM of the center as well as from 10N-17N between 102W- 113W. Seas peak at 27 ft near the center with 12 ft seas extending out as far as 180 NM SE from the center. The NW motion is expected continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique will continue to move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight. Enrique is then expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday. Additional weakening is forecast over the next few days, but Enrique could still be a tropical storm as it approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula by Wednesday. Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce heavy to extreme rainfall amounts over Colima and Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N102W. It resumes southwest of Enrique near 13N117W to 08N135W. ITCZ continues from 08N135W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between 90W-103W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on Tropical Storm Enrique. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of Baja California to a 1024 mb high near 34N143W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft in S Gulf of California, 3 ft or less over central and N Gulf of California, and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere except in the vicinity of Enrique. Tropical Storm Enrique near 20.7N 107.3W 982 mb at 2 PM PDT moving NW at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Enrique should move to 21.4N 107.8W Tue morning, 22.1N 108.5W Tue afternoon, 22.8N 109.4W Wed morning, move inland over Baja California Sur and weaken to a tropical depression Wed afternoon, remain over land Thu, and dissipate Fri. Elsewhere high pressure will prevail west of Baja California and quiescent conditions are expected through at least Fri. No significant long-period swell from the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated over the next several days. Seas will increase over the Gulf of California as Enrique reaches the entrance to the Gulf on Tue. Elsewhere, except in the vicinity of Enrique, seas will remain 5-7 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle variable winds north of 04N and gentle to moderate S flow over the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Sat night. No significant long-period swell from the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated over the next several days. Seas will be generally 5-7 ft except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends west of Baja California to a 1024 mb high near 34N143W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures of the ITCZ are contributing toward gentle to fresh N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 120W. South of Enrique, moderate to fresh W to SW winds are occurring down to 08N between 103W and 120W. Seas 8 ft or greater in association with Enrique are north of 12N between 102W and 110W. Elsewhere seas are 5-7 ft. As Enrique weakens while it moves northwestward and the pressure gradient over the open waters also weakens, winds and seas should diminish across the remainder of the waters by Tue and remain that way through at least Fri night. No significant long- period swell from the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated over the next several days. No new tropical cyclone activity is anticipated through the next several days. $$ Landsea