000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Enrique is centered near 20.4N 106.7W at 28/1500 UTC moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scatteed moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 120 NM of the center as well as from 10N-15N between 102W-115W. Seas peak at 28 ft near the center with 12 ft seas extending out as far as 180 NM SE from the center. A turn to the northwest is expected this afternoon with that motion expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, will begin to move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico this afternoon. Enrique is then expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday. Weakening is forecasted over the next several days. Enrique is expected to weaken below hurricane intensity by tomorrow, but is still expected to be a tropical storm when it moves near the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday. Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce heavy to extreme rainfall over Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit in western Mexico. These amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 06N104W. It resumes southwest of Enrique near 11N117W to 08N134W. ITCZ continues from 08N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N-10N between 90W-103W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on Hurricane Enrique. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of Baja California to a 1023 mb high near 33N143W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting gentle to fresh NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft in S Gulf of California, 3 ft or less over central and N Gulf of California, and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere except in the vicinity of Enrique. Hurricane Enrique near 20.4N 106.7W 977 mb at 8 AM PDT moving NNW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Enrique should move to 20.9N 107.2W this evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 107.7W Tue morning, 22.2N 108.4W Tue evening, 23.0N 109.3W Wed morning, move inland over Baja California Sur and weaken to a tropical depression near 23.8N 110.0W Wed evening, and become a remnant low Thu morning. Elsewhere high pressure will prevail west of Baja California and quiescent conditions are expected through at least Fri. No significant long-period swell from the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated over the next several days. Seas will increase over the Gulf of California as Enrique reaches the entrance to the Gulf on Tue. Elsewhere except in the vicinity of Enrique, seas will remain 5-7 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle variable winds north of 04N and gentle to moderate S flow over the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Fri night. No significant long-period swell from the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated over the next several days. Seas will be generally 5-7 ft except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends west of Baja California to a 1023 mb high near 33N143W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures of the ITCZ are contributing toward gentle to fresh N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 120W. South of Enrique, moderate to fresh W to SW winds are occurring down to 08N between 100W and 120W. Seas 8 ft or greater in association with Enrique are north of 10N between 100W and 110W. Elsewhere seas are 5-7 ft. As Enrique weakens while it moves northwestward and the pressure gradient over the open waters also weakens, winds and seas should diminish across the remainder of the waters by Tue and remain that way through at least Fri night. No significant long- period swell from the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated over the next several days.No new tropical cyclone activity is anticipated through the next several days. $$ Landsea