455 AXPZ20 KNHC 280949 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Enrique is centered near 20.0N 106.3W at 28/0900 UTC moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed from 17N to 24N between 104W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 17N between 99W and 115W. Seas peak at 27 ft near the center with 12 ft seas extending out as far as 165 NM SE from the center. On the forecast track the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, are expected to continue to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning. Little change in strength is expected this morning. Enrique is forecast to begin weakening later today, and continue to weaken through early this week. Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce very heavy rainfall over Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N94W to 12N100W. It resumes west of Enrique near 12N113W to 08N130W. ITCZ continues from 08N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N E of 84W, and from 03N to 09N between 92W and 101W. MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 09N94W TO 12N100W...RESUMING NEAR 12N114W TO 08N130W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on Hurricane Enrique. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of Baja California to a 1022 mb high near 33N140W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere except in the vicinity of Enrique. Hurricane Enrique near 19.6N 106.0W 975 mb at 8 PM PDT moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Enrique will move to 20.3N 106.4W Mon morning, 20.9N 106.9W Mon evening, 21.6N 107.5W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 108.1W Tue evening, 23.3N 109.0W Wed morning, and 24.4N 110.0W Wed evening. Enrique will weaken to a remnant low near 26.0N 112.0W late Thu. Elsewhere high pressure will prevail west of Baja California and quiescent conditions are expected through Fri night. Seas should remain 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere except in the vicinity of Enrique. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle variable winds N of 04N and gentle to moderate southerly flow over the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Fri night. Seas will be generally 5-6 ft except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends west of Baja California to a 1022 mb high near 33N140W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures of the ITCZ are contributing toward gentle to moderate N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 125W. South of Enrique, moderate to locally fresh W to SW winds are occurring down to 08N between 101W and 121W. Seas 8 ft or greater in association with Enrique north of 09N between 98W and 110W. Elsewhere seas are 5-7 ft. As Enrique weakens while it moves northwestward and the pressure gradient over the open waters also weakens, winds and seas should diminish across the remainder of the waters by Tue and remain that way through at least Fri night. $$ Ramos