000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jun 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 30N75W, about 350 nm to the east of NE Florida. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is about half-way between the 1013 mb low pressure center and the coast of Georgia. Isolated moderate to locally strong is about 700 nm to the SE of the center in the SE quadrant. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet within 225 nm to the SSW of the low pressure center. The sea heights range from 6 to 7 feet within 200 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Near-gale-force winds are within 130 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Fresh-to-strong winds are within 220 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The associated precipitation has become less organized since earlier this afternoon. It has become displaced to the northwest of the surface center, due to strong upper level winds. The low pressure center is forecast to move quickly, west-northwestward 15 to 20 mph. The low pressure center is expected to cross over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream on Monday morning. It has some potential to become a tropical depression, or a tropical storm, before reaching the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina, by Monday evening. It is possible that tropical storm warnings may be required for sections of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, with short notice, if the system becomes more organized overnight or on Monday. A few inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina through Monday night. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Monday afternoon, if necessary. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Gentle winds are within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Fresh NE winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are from 20N to 24N between 20W and 26W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 17N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near 11N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 200 nm of the low pressure center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 270 nm to 440 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet within 315 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Fresh-to-strong NE winds are within 250 nm of the low pressure center in the NE quadrant. Some slow development is possible through the end of the week, while this system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward about 20 mph. It is likely that this low pressure center may reach the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information. Fresh-to-strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, cover the waters that are from 11N to 18N between 42W and 50W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 18N southward, moving W from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 280 nm on either side of the tropical wave. Fresh NE winds are within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 280 nm to the west of the tropical wave. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet within 225 nm to the east of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong are in the waters that are next to the western sections of Haiti, including covering the Gonave Island, and in the Windward Passage. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 17N to 20N between the tropical wave and 80W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the waters that are from Hispaniola southward between 68W and 76W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet between 70W and 80W. A tropical wave is along 90W/91W from 21N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 75 nm of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula along 90W. Scattered to numerous strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and in the southern sections of Honduras and in parts of El Salvador. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N25W, to the 1009 mb low pressure center that is along the 36W/37W tropical wave, to 06N41W. The ITCZ continues from 06N41W to 05N51W, near the coasts of Brazil and the French Guiana. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 06W and 13W, and from 10N southward between the 18W/19W tropical wave and the 36W/37W tropical wave. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is along 95W/96W, from the Texas coast southward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in the area of the surface trough. A separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico to 90W, from the area of the 1013 mb low pressure center, westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong spans the entire area, from the Bahamas, to Florida, to the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough, approaching the Texas coast this evening, will move inland, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms along with fresh southeast winds. Otherwise, gentle to moderate SE winds will persist through the latter part of the week between a trough over the far southwest Gulf and high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 500 mb indicates that broad cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from Jamaica westward. An inverted trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N to 17N between 78W and 83W. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Colombia within 250 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 70W westward. A tropical wave, that currently is to the south of Hispaniola, will move westward across the basin through Monday. The winds and the seas will increase across mainly the southeast and south central Caribbean as high pressure builds into the basin following the tropical wave. The winds and the seas also will increase in the Gulf of Honduras starting Mon night following the tropical wave. Another robust tropical wave is likely to approach the Lesser Antilles late in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is along 30N/31N between 34W and 56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 30N northward between 30W and 63W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N between 56W and 57W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate is within 120 nm of the center in the E semicircle. A 1013 mb low pressure center, that is near 30N75W, will continue moving west to WNW toward Georgia or South Carolina Mon evening. Strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms can be excepted N of 28N and W of 73W through Mon night. There is a medium chance of tropical development of this low before it reaches the coast. Elsewhere moderate SE flow will persist through late week as high pressure builds over the area. $$ MT/SK