000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272146 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jun 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Enrique is centered near 19.0N 105.7W at 27/2100 UTC moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed within 120 NM of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted north of 03N between 95W and 105W. Seas peak at 30 ft near the center with 12 ft seas extending out as far as 3000 NM from the center. A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin tonight. That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Enrique is then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken through early this week. Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce very heavy rainfall over Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N100W. It resumes west of Enrique near 12N114W to 09N130W. ITCZ continues from 09N130W to 10N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N east of 195W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on Hurricane Enrique. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of Baja California to a 1023 mb high near 32N141W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere except in the vicinity of Enrique. Hurricane Enrique near 19.0N 105.7W 977 mb at 2 PM PDT moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Enrique should move to 19.8N 106.1W Mon morning, 20.5N 106.8W Mon afternoon, 21.1N 107.3W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 107.9W Tue afternoon, 22.6N 108.6W Wed morning, and 23.6N 109.5W near Cabo San Lucas Wed afternoon. Enrique should weaken to a remnant low over the Baja California peninsula Thu afternoon. Elsewhere high pressure will prevail west of Baja California and quiescent conditions are expected through Fri. Seas should remain 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere except in the vicinity of Enrique. No significant long-period swell from the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated through the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient across the waters is promoting quiescent winds through at least Fri night. Seas are generally 5-6 ft except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Panama. No significant long- period swell from the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends west of Baja California to a 1023 mb high near 32N141W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures of the ITCZ are contributing toward gentle to moderate N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 120W. South of Enrique, fresh to strong W to SW winds are occurring down to 10N between 103W and 115W. Seas 8 ft or greater in associating with Enrique north of 10N between 100W and 110W. Elsewhere seas are 5-7 ft. As Enrique weakens while it moves northwestward and the pressure gradient over the open waters also weakens, winds and seas should diminish across the remainder of the waters by Tue and remain that way through at least Fri. $$ Landsea