000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270935 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Enrique is centered near 17.6N 106.0W at 27/0900 UTC moving NNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center of Enrique. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails elsewhere from 10N to 21N between 99W and 109W. A turn to the north-northwest is expected later this morning, with the storm maintaining a northwest to north- northwest heading during next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico late today through Monday. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N98W. It resumes west of Enrique near 11N114W to 08N130W. ITCZ continues from 08N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 17N east of 100W, and from 04N to 11N between 110W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on Hurricane Enrique. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range west of Baja California, 4-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Enrique will move to 18.5N 106.1W this afternoon, 19.4N 106.6W Mon morning, 20.1N 107.2W Mon afternoon, 20.7N 107.7W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.3N 108.2W Tue afternoon, and 22.1N 109.0W Wed morning. Enrique will weaken to a tropical depression near 23.5N 110.5W by early Thu. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail west of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with light winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft. For the forecast, fresh SW swell will prevail over the waters between the Galapagos and Ecuador through today before slowly subsiding. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N, centered on a 1024 mb high near 32N140W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 10N and west of 120W. Seas over this area area in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 120W. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over this area. $$ ERA