000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262045 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Enrique is centered near 17.1N 105.3W at 26/1500 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong within 60 nm of the center of Enrique. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 101W and 113W. Enrique is moving on a north- northwest track and is forecast to take a more northwest track later this weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next two to three days. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N94W to 12N98W. It resumes west of Enrique near 13N109W to 08N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N east of 90W, and from 03N to 16N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 105W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on Hurricane Enrique. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range west of Baja California, 4-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Enrique near 17.1N105.3W will move to 17.5N 105.7W this evening, 18.3N 106.0W Sun morning, 19.4N 106.4W Sun evening, 20.1N 107.1W Mon morning, 20.6N 107.7W Mon evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.3N 108.4W Tue morning. Enrique will change little in intensity as it moves to near 22.1N 109.5W early Wed. Elsewhere high pressure will prevail west of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with light winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador in SW swell. Seas are in the 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh SW swell will prevail over the waters between the Galapagos and Ecuador through the weekend before slowly subsiding. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N, centered on a 1023 mb high near 32N141W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 10N and west of 120W. Seas over this area area in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 120W. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over this area. $$ AL