000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260929 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Enrique is centered near 16.7N 104.7W at 26/0900 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong within 120 nm of the center of Enrique. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 04N to 22N between 100W and 109W. Enrique is forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest tonight or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next two to three days. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N99W. It resumes west of Enrique near 14N110W to 07N126W. The ITCZ continues from 07N126W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 17N and east of 100W, and from 06N to 16N between 110W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on Hurricane Enrique. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of Baja California, 4-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Enrique will move to 16.9N 105.5W this afternoon, 17.5N 106.1W Sun morning, 18.5N 106.4W Sun afternoon, 19.5N 107.1W Mon morning, 20.2N 107.8W Mon afternoon, and 20.7N 108.5W Tue morning. Enrique will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.5N 109.5W by early Wed. Elsewhere high pressure will build into the Baja California waters through early Sat to freshen winds across north and central portions. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate gap winds pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NW winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec area on Mon as the pressure gradient intensifies. Light to gentle easterly breezes prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough along 10N. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas of 6-7 ft prevail over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate SW swell will impact the waters off Ecuador, Colombia and into western Panama and Costa Rica through today before fresh swell arrives tonight into Sat raising seas through the weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N, centered on a 1024 mb high near 31N141W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 10N and west of 120W. Seas over this area area in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and east of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 120W. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over this area. $$ ERA