000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252103 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Enrique is centered near 15.9N 103.3W at 25/2100 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong within 60 nm of the center of Enrique. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 96W and 107W. Enrique will continue on a slowing west-northwest motion tonight before starting on a more NW track this weekend. The system is then forecast to return to a more west northwest track early next week. Environmental conditions favor intensification, and Enrique is forecast to become a hurricane Sat and reach a peak intensity of 85 kt late Sat night. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W to 14N99W. It resumes west of Enrique near 15N106W to low pres near 13.5N109W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 07N125W to 06N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N east of 87W, from 03N to 08N between 87W and 98W, and from 06N to 15N between 107W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on T.S. Enrique. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of Baja California, 4-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Enrique will move to 15.9N 103.6W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.4N 104.6W Sat morning, 16.9N 105.4W Sat evening, 17.6N 106.1W Sun morning, 18.5N 106.7W Sun evening, and 19.2N 107.5W Mon morning. Enrique will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.1N 108.6W early Tue. Elsewhere high pressure will build into the Baja California waters through early Sat to freshen winds across north and central portions. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle easterly breezes prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough along 10N. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas of 6-7 ft prevail over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate SW swell will impact the waters off Ecuador, Colombia and into western Panama and Costa Rica through today before fresh swell arrives tonight into Sat raising seas through the weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N, centered on a 1024 mb high near 33N142W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 10N and west of 120W. Seas over this area area in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and east of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 120W. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over this area. $$ AL