000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251522 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Enrique is centered near 15.6N 102.5W at 25/1500 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong within 60 nm of the center of Enrique. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 97W and 107W. Enrique will continue on a west-northwest motion today before starting on a more NW track this weekend. Environmental conditions favor steady intensification, and Enrique is forecast to become a hurricane in 24 hours and reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 48 hours. The outer rainbands of Enrique are expected to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N91W to 13N98W. It resumes west of Enrique near 15N104W to low pres near 13.5N109W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 07N125W to 05N131W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N east of 84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 85W and 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 107W and 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on T.S. Enrique. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail west of Baja California, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Enrique will move to 15.9N 103.6W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.4N 104.6W Sat morning, 16.9N 105.4W Sat evening, 17.6N 106.1W Sun morning, 18.5N 106.7W Sun evening, and 19.2N 107.5W Mon morning. Enrique will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.1N 108.6W early Tue. Elsewhere high pressure will build into the Baja California waters through early Sat to freshen winds across north and central portions. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle easterly breezes prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough along 10N. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. gentle SW to W winds prevail S of the trough. Seas of 6-7 ft prevail over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate SW swell will impact the waters off Ecuador, Colombia and into western Panama and Costa Rica through today before fresh swell arrives tonight into Sat raising seas through the weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N, centered on a 1027 mb high near 45N136W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 10N and west of 120W. Seas over this area area in the 4-6 ft range. $$ AL