000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Enrique is centered near 15.0N 101.7W at 25/0900 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N- 18N between 97W-108W. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique will move parallel to, and offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico while becoming a hurricane within the next 48 hours. In addition to strong winds and large seas near this system, there is the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding along the mountainous coastline from Guerrero to Jalisco. This is in the same general area that experienced heavy rainfall from Dolores the past weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N99W to low pressure near 14N109W 1011 mb to 16N105W to 07N123W. The ITCZ extends from 07N123W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-14N and east of 97W, from 06N-18N between 97W-108W, and from 12N-16N between 106W-115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the section above for details on the now T.S. Enrique. North to 18N, gentle to moderate E to SE breezes prevail, with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mixed swell. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds prevail offshore of Baja California with seas of 4-6 ft. Similar southerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. High pressure will begin to build across the area from the NW into the weekend to freshen the wind flow across these waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle easterly breezes prevail N of the monsoon trough along 10N, while light to gentle SW to W winds prevail S of the trough. Slight to moderate seas of 5-7 ft in SW swell prevail. For the forecast, moderate NE winds will weaken today through the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate SW swell will impact the waters off Ecuador, Colombia and into western Panama and Costa Rica, today before fresh SW swell arrives tonight through Sat to raise seas to 6-8 ft through the weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 20N, centered on a 1027 mb high near 45N136W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds north of 10N and west of 125W. $$ ERA