000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242058 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jun 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low is analyzed near 14N99.5W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N northward to the coast between 96W AND 102W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. A gale warning has been issued in anticipation of gale force winds developing Fri. This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico this weekend, and interests in those areas should monitor its progress for development. In addition to strong winds and large seas near this system, there is the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding along the mountainous coastline from Guerrero to Jalisco. This is in the same general area that experienced heavy rainfall from Dolores the past weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N89W to low pres near 14N99.5W to low pres near 13N108W to 07N126W. The ITCZ extends from 07N126W to 08N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 80W and 92W, and from 06N to 19N between 94W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on developing low pressure with a high probability of developing into the tropical cyclone. E to SE winds of 20-25 kt prevail within 90 nm NE of the low currently near 13N99.5W. Seas are assumed to be around 8 ft within this area of strong winds accompanying this low. Farther north to 18N, gentle to moderate E to SE breezes prevail, with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of SW and NW swell. Developing low pressure S of Acapulco, Mexico has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. A gale warning is in effect for the offshore waters off Southern Mexico in association to this low. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds prevail offshore of Baja California with seas of 4-5 ft. Similar southerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. High pressure will begin to build across the area from the NW into the weekend to freshen the wind flow across these waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle easterly breezes prevail N of the monsoon trough along 10N, while light to gentle SW to W winds prevail S of the trough. Slight to moderate seas of 5-7 ft in SW swell prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. Moderate SW swell will impact the waters off Ecuador, Colombia and into western Panama and Costa Rica, through Fri before fresh SW swell arrives Fri night through Sat to raise seas to 6-8 ft through the weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 20N, centered on a 1027 mb high near 40N136W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds north of 10N and west of 125W. $$ AL