000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241502 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low is analyzed near 13N98.5W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11.5N northward to the coast between 94W AND 101W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. A gale warning has been issued in anticipation of gale force winds developing by 1200 UTC Fri. This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico this weekend, and interests in those areas should monitor its progress for development. In addition to strong winds and large seas near this system, there is the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding along the mountainous coastline from Guerrero to Jalisco. This is in the same general area that experienced heavy rainfall from Dolores the past weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N87W to low pres near 13N98.5W to low pres near 13N108W to 09N117W to 09N126W. The ITCZ extends from 09N126W to 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N E of 86W, and from 04N to 09N between 90W and 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 18N between 94W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 110W and 120W, and from 08N to 11N between 123W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... E to SE winds of 20-25 kt prevail within 90 nm E of the low currently near 13N98.5W. Seas are assumed to be around 8 ft and building within this area of strong winds accompanying this low. These deteriorating marine conditions will shift westward across the near and offshore waters of Oaxaca as the low pressure gradually becomes better organized. Farther north to 18N, gentle to moderate E to SE breezes prevail, with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of SW and NW swell. A gale warning is in effect for the offshore waters from western Oaxaca to Michoacan effective Thu night and Fri. This is related to developing low pressure currently SW of Puerto Angel. There is a high chance this low will develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. If this happens, gale conditions or higher are possible off Colima, Jalisco and south of Cabo San Lucas Fri night through Sun, then approaching Socorro Island Mon. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds prevail offshore of Baja California tonight with seas of 4-5 ft. Similar southerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. High pressure will begin to build across the area from the NW into the weekend to freshen the wind flow across these waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle easterly breezes prevail N of the monsoon trough along 10N, while light to gentle SW to W winds prevail S of the trough. Slight to moderate seas of 5-7 ft in SW swell prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. Moderate SW swell will impact the waters off Ecuador, Colombia and into western Panama and Costa Rica, through Fri before fresh SW swell arrives Fri night through Sat to raise seas to 6-8 ft through the weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 20N and west of 125W and is centered on a 1025 mb high near 39N138W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds north of 10N and west of 125W. $$ AL