000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 mb low is analyzed near 12N95W along a tropical wave that 
extends from 04N to coastal Mexico along 95W, moving west at 15 
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 360
nm in the west semicircle of the low pressure, and within 240 nm
in the east semicircle of the low pressure. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the 
next couple of days as the disturbance moves west-northwestward 
at about 10 mph. This system is expected to be near the coast of 
southern or southwestern Mexico by this weekend. Interests in 
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. In 
addition to strong winds and large seas near this system, the 
main weather impact will be the potential for heavy rainfall and 
flooding along the mountainous coast of Guerrero, Michoacan, and 
Colima. This is in the same general area that experienced heavy 
rainfall from Dolores a few days ago. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N along 108W, moving west 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 
16N between 105W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1008 mb low pressure
near 12N95W to 11N115W. ITCZ extends from 11N115W to 12N130W to 
beyond 07N140W. In addition to the convection mentioned in the
Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N west of 
138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja California 
peninsula offshore waters supporting gentle to locally moderate 
NW winds. Earlier scatterometer data indicated light to gentle 
NW breezes off Baja California Norte, and gentle winds south of 
Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the open waters off Baja and
4 to 7 ft offshore of southern Mexico with SW swell. Gentle to 
moderate southerly flow and slight seas persist over the Gulf of 
California. 

The gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail across Baja 
California offshore waters through early Thu. Winds will
gradually increase across the Baja California Norte offshore 
waters Thu into the weekend as a ridge shifts eastward and builds
across the region. Looking ahead, as discussed in the special 
features section above, low pressure is expected to form south of
southeastern Mexico in the next few days and move W-NW or 
parallel along the Mexican coast through the weekend. A tropical 
depression is likely to develop from this system. This will bring
the potential for winds to gale force with rough seas off the 
coast of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima, and potential for heavy
rainfall.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough, except where stronger winds are occurring near 
very active convection associated with a tropical wave. Elsewhere
light to gentle variable winds generally prevail north of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell except
7-8 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected south of the
monsoon trough through Wed, while moderate SE to E winds prevail
north of the trough. Long period SW swell across the regional 
waters will gradually subside through today with another smaller
pulse expected for the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 20N and west
of 125W and is centered on a 1025 mb high near 37N143W. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting gentle to 
moderate winds north of 08N and west of 125W. A 1012 mb surface 
low is near 12.5N128W, where winds near 20 kt within 180 nm of
the NW area 7-8 ft. Wave heights are expected be 6 to 8 ft 
across the tropical waters near the ITCZ west of 130W later in 
the week, with 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

$$
Christensen