000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230326 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A tropical wave extends from 05N to Guatemala along 91W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 89W and 95W. Global models suggest that an area of low pressure associated with this wave is likely to form in the next few days, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week or this weekend. This disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, and could be near the coast of southern Mexico by the weekend. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. In addition to strong winds and large seas offshore, the main weather impact will be the potential for heavy rainfall along the mountainous coast of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. This is in the same general area that experienced heavy rainfall from Dolores a few days ago. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N along 107W, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11.5N between 103W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 12N104W to 12.5N114W. ITCZ extends from 12.5N114W to low pres 1012 mb near 12.5N128.5W to beyond 07N140W. In addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is evident from 01N to 10N E of 88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 95W and 120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A band of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is evident this evening from about 75 nm off Punta Eugenia, NE across Baja California Norte along 30N and across the northern Gulf of California N of 30N and into mainland Mexico. This activity is related to instability ahead of an upper trough just west of 120W, and a low level low near 26.5N116W. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds. Afternoon scatterometer data indicated light to gentle NW breezes off Baja California and off southern Mexico. Seas remain 5 to 7 ft in the open waters off Mexico with SW swell. Gentle to moderate southerly flow and slight seas persist over the Gulf of California. The gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail across Baja California offshore waters through Thu. Winds will increase across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu into the weekend as a ridge shifts eastward and builds across the region. Looking ahead, as discussed in the special features section above, low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico in the next few days and move W-NW or parallel along the Mexican coast through the weekend. A tropical depression is likely to develop from this system. This will bring the potential for winds to gale force with rough seas off the coast of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, except where stronger winds are occurring near very active convection associated with a tropical wave. Elsewhere light to gentle variable winds generally prevail north of the monsoon trough. Seas continue in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through Wed, while moderate SE to E winds prevail north of the trough. Long period SW swell across the regional waters will gradually subside through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 20N and west of 125W and is centered on a 1026 mb high near 37N144W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 08N and west of 125W. A 1012 mb surface low is near 12.5N128W. Wave heights are expected be 6 to 8 ft across the tropical waters near the ITCZ west of 130W later in the week, with 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. $$ Stripling