000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to Honduras along 85W-86W, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 14.5N between 84W and 92W. Global models suggest that an area of low pressure associated with this wave is likely to form in a few days, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for sustained active convection and gradual development of this low pressure area, and a tropical depression could form late this week or into the weekend. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N along 100W-101W, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 96W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 11N88W to 13N112W to low pres 1012 mb near 11.5N127W to 09N132W. ITCZ extends from 09N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N E of 80W, from 06N to 13N between 93W to 120W, and within 120 nm either side of the trough and ITCZ between 128W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds, except for moderate to locally fresh winds around the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Recent altimeter data indicate that wave heights remain in the 4-7 ft range. These conditions will prevail through Thu. Winds will increase across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu into the weekend as a ridge shift eastward and builds across the region. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S to SE winds will prevail through early in the weekend. Wave heights will be in the 3 to 4 ft range during that period. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to develop south of southeastern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or into the weekend as this systems moves WNW, or parallel and offshore southern Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast to develop over the Oaxaca and Chiapas nearshore waters by Thu, and increase to fresh to strong Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, except where stronger winds are occurring near very active convection associated with a tropical wave. Elsewhere light to gentle variable winds generally prevail north of the monsoon trough. Seas continue in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through Wed, while moderate SE to E winds prevail north of the trough. Long period SW swell across the regional waters will gradually subside through Wed. Looking ahead, low pressure is expected to develop south of Guatemala and the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu, increasing winds to moderate to fresh. Gradual development is likely as the system moves WNW and offshore of southern Mexico, and a tropical depression could form offshore of southeastern Mexico by this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the waters west of 126W and is centered on a 1029 mb high near 38N144W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 08N and west of 120W. A 1012 mb low is along the monsoon trough along 11.5N127W and is nearly stationary. Overnight scatterometer data showed NE winds 15-20 kt within 150 nm across the NW semicircle of the low. Mainly moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas ranging between 7 to 8 ft in southerly swell. This swell will gradually subside through Wed night. Wave heights are expected to remain in the 7-8 ft range through tonight then subside to 6-7 ft through mid- week. $$ Stripling