000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220256 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0210 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N along 99W, moving west near 10 kt. Associated convection is modest and described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 11.5N97W to 15N107W to low pres 1011 mb near 11.5N127W to 09N132W. ITCZ extends from 09N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is from 03.5N to 12.5N between 82W and 90W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 12N between 90W and 122W, from 06N to 07.5N between 131W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds, except for moderate to locally fresh winds along the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Recent altimeter data indicate that wave heights are in the 4-7 ft range. These conditions will prevail through Thu. Winds will increase across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu into the weekend as a ridge shift eastward and builds across the region. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S to SE winds will prevail through early in the weekend. Wave heights will be in the 3 to 4 ft range during that period. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to develop south of southeastern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or into the weekend as this systems moves WNW, or parallel and offshore southern Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast to develop over the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshores waters by Thu, and increase to fresh to strong Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas continue in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across the entire forecast area through Wed, then a gentle SW breeze will continue into the weekend south of the monsoon trough. Long period SW swell across the regional waters will gradually subside through Wed. Looking ahead, low pressure is expected to develop south of Guatemala and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days, increasing winds to moderate to fresh. Some gradual development is possible as the system moves WNW and offshore of southern Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the waters west of 116W and is centered on a 1030 mb high near 39N143W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 08N and west of 120W. Mainly moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas ranging between 7 to 8 ft in southerly swell. This swell will gradually subside through Wed night. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to remain in the 7-8 ft range through tonight then subside to 6-7 ft through mid-week. $$ Stripling