000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212127 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N with axis near 98W, moving west near 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 16N between 95W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N110W to 11N123W to 07N133W. ITCZ extends from 07N133W to beyond 06N140W. Aside the convection associated with the tropical wave, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 3.5N E of 87W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N between 87W and 95W, from 07N to 13N between 105W and 120W, and from 05N to 08N W of 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds, except for moderate to locally fresh winds along the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Altimeter data from early this afternoon indicate that wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. These conditions will prevail through Thu. Winds will increase across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night into the weekend as a ridge shift eastward and builds across the region. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S to SE winds will prevail through early in the weekend. Wave heights will be in the 3 to 4 ft range during that period. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week, and some gradual development is possible while it moves WNW parallel and offshore southern Mexico. Moderate SE winds are forecast to develop over the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshores waters by Thu, and increase to fresh winds Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are likely in that region on Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across the entire forecast area through Wed, then the pressure gradient will gradually relax with a gentle SW breeze continuing into the weekend. Long period SW swell is currently peaking across the regional waters and will gradually subside through Tue, with seas less than 8 ft everywhere by Wed afternoon. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of Guatemala late this week, and some gradual development is possible as the system moves WNW. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge is across the waters west of 120W and is centered on a 1028 mb high near 42N142W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 08N and west of 132W. Mainly moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas to 8 ft in southerly swell. This swell will gradually subside through Wed. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to remain in the 6-8 ft range today then subside to 7 ft through mid-week. $$ Ramos