000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 03N to 16N with axis near 98W, moving west near 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 16N between 93W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 11N110W to 09N128W. ITCZ extends from 09N130W to beyond 06N140W. Aside the convection associated with the tropical wave, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 03N E of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 14N between 85W and 93W, from 05N to 13N between 105W and 117W, and from 05N to 08N W of 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja waters supporting light to gentle northwest winds over the forecast waters, except for moderate winds along the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Latest altimeter data indicate that wave heights remain in the 5-7 ft range. The pressure gradient will tighten slightly later today and NW winds will increase to gentle to moderate with fresh winds off Cabo San Lucas. These conditions will then prevail through Thu. Winds will increase across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night into the weekend as the ridge shift eastward and builds across the region. In the Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong S winds continue tonight but will gradually diminish on Mon. Wave heights are presently 4 to 6 ft and will subside to 3 to 4 ft by Mon afternoon. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week, and some gradual development is possible while it moves WNW parallel and offshore southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across the entire forecast area through Wed, then the pressure gradient will gradually relax with a gentle SW breeze continuing into next weekend. Long period SW swell is currently peaking across the regional waters and will gradually subside Mon afternoon through Tue, with seas less than 8 ft everywhere by Wed afternoon. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of Guatemala late this week, and some gradual development is possible as the system moves WNW. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge is across the waters west of 115W and is centered on a 1030 mb high near 40N142W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough to near 18N and west of 125W. A tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge and the remnants of an old frontal trough is supporting fresh north to northeast winds north of 20N and west of 130W, with seas in the 8-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell has propagated northward across the equatorial waters over the weekend and has reached near 18N tonight. This swell has peaked and will begin to slowly subside tonight through late Mon. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to remain in the 6-8 ft range today before starting to subside Mon night through Tue. $$ Ramos