000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210844 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 97W north of 05N, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08.5N to 10.5N between 94W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 95W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 07N91W to 11.5N115W to 11N125W. ITCZ extends from 11N125W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of 88W, within 90 nm of the coast between 88W and 93W, and within 90 nm N and 180 nm S of trough axis between 88W and 115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of ITCZ between 127W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja waters with gentle to moderate northwest winds over the forecast waters, except for fresh to strong winds along the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Wave heights remain in the 5-7 ft range. A modest surface ridge will prevail across the area through Wed to maintain gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. Winds will increase across the Baja waters late in the week as the ridge shift eastward and builds across the region. In the Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong S winds continue tonight but will gradually diminish on Mon. Wave heights are presently 4 to 6 ft and will subside to 3 to 4 ft by Mon afternoon. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week, and some gradual development is possible while it moves WNW parallel and offshore southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across the entire forecast area through Wed, then the pressure gradient will gradually relax with a gentle SW breeze continuing into next weekend. Long period SW swell is currently peaking across the regional waters and will gradually subside Mon afternoon through Tue, with seas less than 8 ft everywhere by Wed afternoon. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of Guatemala late this week, and some gradual development is possible as the system moves WNW. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge is across the waters west of 115W and is centered on a 1030 mb high near 40N142W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough to near 18N and west of 125W. A tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge and the remnants of an old frontal trough is supporting fresh north to northeast winds north of 20N and west of 130W, with seas in the 8-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell has propagated northward across the equatorial waters over the weekend and has reached near 18N tonight. This swell has peaked and will begin to slowly subside tonight through late Mon. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to remain in the 6-8 ft range today before starting to subside Mon night through Tue. $$ Stripling