000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0210 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 94W/95W north of 05N, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 10N between 92.5W and 95W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over land from the Mexican state of Chiapas eastward across central Guatemala. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 08.5N86W to 11.5N115W to 10N126W. ITCZ extends from 10N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N E of 92W, and within 90 nm of the coast between 86W and 91.5W.v Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 92W and 112W, and within 60 nm N and 120 nm S of trough axis between 124W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Baja waters with gentle to moderate northwest winds over the forecast waters. Wave heights remain in the 5-7 ft range. A surface ridge will build modestly across the area into Mon. Mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds will prevail into Tue. In the Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong S winds are occurring. These will prevail through tonight before diminishing modestly Mon. Wave heights are presently 4 to 6 ft and will subside to 3 to 4 ft by Mon afternoon. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week, and some gradual development is possible while it moves WNW parallel and offshore southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across the entire forecast area through Wed, then the pressure gradient will gradually relax with a gentle SW breeze continuing through Sat night. Long period SW swell in the form of 5 to 8 ft seas currently across the area will gradually subside Mon through Tue, with seas less than 8 ft everywhere by Wed afternoon. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of Guatemala late this week, and some gradual development is possible as the system moves WNW. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge is across the waters west of 115W and is centered on a 1030 mb high near 39N144W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough to near 18N and west of 123W. A tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge and the trough remnants is supporting fresh north to northeast winds north of 25N and west of 130W, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell has propagated northward across the equatorial waters and has reached near 14N today. This swell will continue to spread north-northeastward into tonight, reaching as far as 17N. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to be in the 7-9 ft range before starting to subside early in the week. $$ Stripling