000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200852 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dolores is well inland and centered near 23.5N 103.7W at 0900 UTC moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in bands extending southward from the center to 16N between 101W and 104W. The remnant circulation of Dolores is ill defined and is considered dissipated. These remnants will continue to move N over western Mexico Sun. Previously impacted marine areas continue to see an improvement in marine conditions, and seas along the coast where Dolores entered land have subsided to 7-8 ft. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Sunday, which could result in life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please see the last NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 89/90W north of 02N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 10.5N between 87W and 91W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 10N91W to 16N102W to 10N120W to 10N133W. ITCZ extends from 10N134 to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 14N E of 99W, and from 06N to 09N between 131W and 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and 180 nm S of trough axis between 102W and 120W, and from 16N to the coast between 101W and 104W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Dolores. Elsewhere, a surface trough has dissipated just west of 125W. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Baja waters east of the former trough with gentle to moderate northwest winds over the forecast waters. Wave heights remain in the 5-7 ft range. A surface ridge will build modestly across the area Sun and Mon. Mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds will prevail into Tue. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate S to SW winds currently prevail across the northern Gulf with wave heights of 3 ft or less. However southerly winds have begun to increase across the south portions of the Gulf and are expected spread to northward across central and north portions overnight and persist through Sun evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and low pressure over north-central Mexico. Wave heights are expected to build to 4-6 ft across open Gulf waters today with these fresh to strong winds. Winds and seas are expected decrease by Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will continue over the offshore waters S of 10N, with variable winds north of 10N. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo each of the next few nights. New SW swell crossing the equatorial waters will reach the offshore waters by sunrise to raise seas to 6-8 ft through Mon night, then slowly subside Tue through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough has dissipated from 28N125W to near 21N130W. A high pressure ridge is across the waters west of this trough centered on a 1029 mb high near 40N142W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 122W. A tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge and the trough remnants is supporting fresh northerly winds north of 27N and west of the trough, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell has propagated northward across the equatorial waters and has reached near 12N this morning. This swell will continue to spread north-northeastward through Sun reaching as far as 17N. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to be in the 7-9 ft range before starting to subside early next week. $$ Stripling