508 AXPZ20 KNHC 200318 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dolores is inland and centered near 22.3N 104.3W at 0300 UTC moving N at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted in bands extending southward from the center to 15N between 100W and 105W. Dolores will continue to weaken over land as it moves N to NNW through Sun and is forecast to dissipate Sun evening. Impacted marine areas will see an improvement in marine conditions through tonight. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Sunday, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88/89W north of 02N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 88W and 97W. Scattered moderate to strong is seen over land to within 30 nm off the coast between 87W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to low pres 1011 mb near 09N89W to 15N101W to 10N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 09.5N E of 85W, and from 05N to 10N between 88W and 99W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and 180 nm S of trough axis between 102W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Dolores. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends just west of 120W. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Baja waters east of the trough with gentle to moderate northwest winds over the forecast waters. Wave heights remain in the 5-7 ft range. A surface ridge will build across the area Sun and Mon as the trough dissipates. Mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds will prevail into Tue. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate S to SW winds currently prevail with wave heights of 3 ft or less. However winds are forecast to increase across the south and central portions of the Gulf later tonight and spread to north portions Sun and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and low pressure over north-central Mexico. Wave heights are expected to build to 4-5 ft across open portions with these winds. Winds and seas are expected decrease by Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will continue over the offshore waters S of 10N, with variable winds north of 10N. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. New SW swell crossing the equatorial waters will reach the offshore waters tonight through Sun to raise seas to 6-8 ft, and continue into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 30N122W to near 21N130W. A high pressure ridge is across the waters west of this trough centered on a 1030 mb high near 39N141W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough to near 15N and west of 120W. A tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge and the trough is supporting fresh northerly winds north of 26N and west of the trough, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell has propagated northward across the equatorial waters and have reached near 11N this evening. This swell will continue to spread north-northeastward through Sun reaching as far as 17N. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to be in the 7-9 ft range before starting to subside early next week. $$ Stripling