000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191507 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jun 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dolores is centered near 18.6N 103.7W at 19/1500 UTC moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 1w0 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 100W and 107W. Dolores has been accelerating while approaching the coast, and the center is forecast to move farther inland through the day. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave has been repositioned to near 86W north of 02N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 84W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N85W to 09.5N88W to 14.5N99W. It then resumes SW of Dolores near 13N106W to 11N111W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 06N E of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 107W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Dolores. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends just west of 120W. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the waters with gentle to moderate northwest winds over the forecast waters. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range. A surface ridge will build across the area this weekend as the trough dissipates. Mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds will prevail into Tue. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less today. Winds are forecast to increase across the north and central parts of the Gulf on Sun and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and low pressure over north-central Mexico. Wave heights are expected to build to 4-5 ft across north and central portions with these winds. Winds and seas are expected decrease by Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will continue over the offshore waters S of 10N, with variable winds north of 10N. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. New SW swell crossed the equatorial waters overnight and will reach the offshore waters tonight through Sun to raise seas to 6-8 ft, and continue into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 30N122W to near 25N126W. A high pressure ridge is across the waters west of this trough near. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough to near 15N and west of 120W. A tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge and the trough is supporting fresh northerly winds north of 28N and west of 125W, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell has propagated north of the equator. This swell will continue to spread north-northeastward into the weekend reaching as far as 17N. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to be in the 7-9 ft range before starting to subside early next week. $$ AL