412 AXPZ20 KNHC 190333 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dolores is centered near 16.3N 102.8W 998 mb at 0300 UTC moving NW or 325 DEG at 8 KT. Maximum sustained winds are 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm S and 210 nm NW semicircles. Dolores will track northwestward to north-northwestward tonight through Saturday before moving inland across SW Mexico Saturday evening. Additional intensification is anticipated up until Dolores's landfall. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W north of 02N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 09N between 87W and 91W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N81W to 15N98W, then resumes west of Dolores near 12N105W to 11N120W to 08N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to the coasts east of 94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 120W and 130W, within 120 nm of the Mexican coast between 96W and 100W, and within 90 nm S of the trough between 105W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Dolores. Elsewhere, weak high pressure dominates the waters west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate northwest winds prevail over the forecast waters. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range. A surface ridge will building across the area this weekend. Mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds will prevail. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less through Saturday. Winds are forecast to increase across the north and central parts of the Gulf on Sun and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and low pressure over north-central Mexico. Wave heights are expected to build to 4-5 ft across north and central portions with these winds. Winds and seas are expected decrease by Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will continue over the offshore waters S of 10N, with variable winds north of 10N. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Sat night. New SW swell is currently crossing the equatorial waters tonight and will reach the offshore waters late Sat through Sun to raise seas to 6-8 ft, and continue into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from southern California to near 26N125W. High pressure prevails across the waters west of this trough and north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough to near 15N and west of 125W. A tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds north of 28N and west of 125W, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell has propagated into the waters along the equator. This swell will continue to spread north-northeastward into the weekend reaching as far as 15N this weekend. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to be in the 7-9 ft range before starting to subside early next week. $$ Stripling