000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dolores is centered near 15.6N 102.3W at 18/2100 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 100W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 18N between 94W and 106W. Dolores will track northwestward to north- northwestward during the next couple of days. Additional intensification is anticipated up until Dolores's landfall. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W north of 02N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 84W and 88W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 15N98W. It resumes west of Dolores near 13N105W to 10N111W to 10N125W to 08N102W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 12N east of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Dolores. Elsewhere, a surface trough prevails west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate northwest winds prevail over the forecast waters. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range. The trough will weaken Sat, with a surface ridge will building across the area thereafter. Mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds will prevail. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less through Saturday. Winds are forecast to increase across the north and central parts of the Gulf on Sun and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and low pressure over north- central Mexico. Wave heights are expected to build to 4-5 ft with these winds. Winds and seas are expected decrease by Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will continue over the offshore waters S of 10N, with variable winds north of 10N. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Sat night. Seas are forecast to build to 6-8 ft in southwest swell across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the weekend and and continue into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough to near 15N and west of 125W. A tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge and a trough off Baja California Norte is supporting fresh to strong winds are noted north of 28N and west of 125W, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell has propagated into the waters south of the equator. This swell will continue to spread north- northeastward into the weekend reaching as far as 15N this weekend. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to be in the 7-9 ft range before starting to subside early next week. $$ AL