000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181515 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Dolores is centered near 14.7N 102.5W at 18/1500 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 100W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 18N between 92W and 107W. Dolores is expected to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward later today and into Saturday, reaching the coast of Colima or Jalisco by Saturday evening. Additional intensification is anticipated up until Dolores's potential landfall due to very warm sea surface temperatures, a moist environment, and significant upper- level divergence, with the system forecast to reach 60 kt Sat night. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W/86W north of 02N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 84W and 88W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 15N100W to 11N109W to 10N127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N east of 89W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 110W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Dolores. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest winds prevail over the forecast waters. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range. A surface ridge will build across the area during the next several days with mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less through Saturday. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to freshen across the north and central parts of the Gulf on Sun and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and low pressure over north- central Mexico. Wave heights are expected to build to 4-5 ft with these winds. Winds and seas are expected decrease by Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the offshore waters through the period. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night near the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Saturday night. Wave heights are in the 3-5 ft range in a south to southwest swell. Wave heights are forecast to build to 6-8 ft in southwest swell across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the weekend and and continue into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 28N and west of 125W, with seas in the 8-9 ft range. Southerly swell has propagated into the waters south of the equator. This swell will continue to spread north- northeastward into the weekend reaching as far as 15N this weekend. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to be in the 7-9 ft range. $$ AL