000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181015 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 14.4N 101.6W at 18/0900 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong conveciton is within 130 nm of the storm center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N to 16N between 95W to 106W. The depression is expected to continue moving WNW with a turn to the northwest and north-northwest over the next 24 h. Strengthening is forecast over the next 36 h and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 12N92W to 14N00W. The monsoon trough resumes southwest of TD 4-E near 13N105W to 10N121W to 10N136W. Aside from the large area of convection described in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along and near the monsoon trough from 04N to 11N between 77W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough between 107W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Four-E. A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, with the resulting gradient producing moderate to fresh northwest winds south of Punta Eugenia. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere to the south and southeast with wave heights in the 3-5 ft range. The ridge will persist across the area during the next several days with mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less through Saturday. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt across the north and central parts of the Gulf on Sun and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and low pressure over north- central Mexico. Wave heights are expected to build to 4-5 ft with these winds. Winds are expected to become gentle to moderate and seas 3 ft or less by Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the offshore waters through the period. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night near the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Saturday night. Wave heights are in the 3-5 ft range in a south to southwest swell. Wave heights are forecast to build to 6-8 ft in a southwest swell across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the weekend and and continue into early next week. A area of low pressure developing over the Bay of Campeche will continue to bring heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mud slides across the steeper terrain of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft prevail from 09N to 12N and west of 135W. These conditions will prevail in the area through Sat, becoming gentle to moderate by later in the weekend and into early next week. High pressure continues to dominate the waters roughly north of 17N and west of 125W. As high pressure builds across the forecast region, an area of fresh to locally strong northerly winds, with wave heights to 9 ft will be over the waters north of 26N between 124W-136W through the weekend. Southern hemispheric cross-equatorial swell is forecast to begin to propagate through the far south-central waters on Fri afternoon, and continue to spread north- northeastward into the weekend reaching to the southern portions of the offshore waters zones corresponding to southwestern Mexico. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to be in the range of about 7-9 ft. $$ AReinhart/ERA