000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171005
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
generally from 05N to 17N between 94W-104W. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the 
system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the Mexican 
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days, which could cause life-threatening flash 
floods and mud slides. Interests in these areas should monitor 
the progress of this system through the weekend. This system has 
a medium chance for tropical development within the next 48 
hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia to across 
northern Panama and Costa Rica and to 09N84W to 13N92W to low 
pres near 13N99W 1008 mb to 12N114W to 09N128W and 07N140W. 
Aside from the large area of scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection described in the Special Features section 
above, similar activity is noted within 30 nm either side of the
trough between 100W-103W and between 136W-139W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough between
109W-114W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features above for information relating to 
the likely possibility of a tropical depression to develop over 
the offshore waters of the southwest coast of Mexico. Expect for
marine conditions to significantly change with the formation of 
this system.

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California, with the resulting gradient producing moderate to 
fresh northwest winds north of Punta Eugenia, including 
Guadalupe Island. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range. Light to
gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere to the south and 
southeast with wave heights in the 3-5 ft range. The ridge will 
persist across the area during the next several days with mainly 
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. Seas of 5-7 ft in 
northwest swell will continue to affect the waters north of 
Punta Eugenia through this afternoon, then subside a little 
tonight.

In the Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
will continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less during the 
remainder of the work-week. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to 
increase to 15-20 kt across the north and central parts of the 
Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient 
tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and 
lower pressures over north-central Mexico. Wave heights are 
expected to build to 4-5 ft with these winds. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the 
offshore waters through the period. Wave heights are in the 3-5 
ft range in a south to southwest swell. Wave heights are 
forecast to build to 6-8 ft in a southwest swell across the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the 
upcoming weekend.

A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Bay of 
Campeche will continue to bring heavy rainfall over portions of 
Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days.
Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mud slides across the 
steeper terrain of Central America.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of former Tropical Depression Carlos is located 
near 08N136W, with a pressure of 1010 mb. It continues to 
enhance winds and wave heights mainly from 09N-15N and west of 
134W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong has developed during 
the past few hours into a a large cluster within 150 nm W of the 
low. Mainly fresh northeast winds and wave heights of 8-9 ft due
to a mixture of north and south swell will shift westward with 
the low during the next 24 hours as the low weakens to a trough. 
These condition will be roughly confined from 07N to 13N west of 
about 136W, but shifting to west of 140W on Fri night.

High pressure continues to dominate the waters roughly north of 
17N and west of 125W. As high pressure builds across the 
forecast region, an area of fresh to locally strong northerly 
winds, with wave heights to 9 ft will be over the waters north of
27N between 122W-131W through this afternoon, before it begins
to gradually shift westward to the northwest part of the area 
while expanding southward from the end of the week into the 
weekend. Outside of the remnants of Carlos, moderate to fresh 
north to northeast winds are present north of 09N and west of a 
line from 30N124W to 09N133W. Wave heights with these winds are 
in the range of 5-7 ft. Southern hemispheric cross-equatorial 
swell is forecast to begin to propagate through the far south- 
central waters on Fri afternoon, and continue to spread north-
northeastward into the weekend reaching to the southern portions
of the offshore waters zones corresponding to southwestern 
Mexico. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to be 
in the range of about 7-10 ft.

$$
Aguirre