901 
AXPZ20 KNHC 170313
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
from 08N to 17N between 94W-108W. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form late this week while the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, near 
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, 
heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the Mexican 
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days, which could cause life-threatening flash 
floods and mud slides. Interests in these areas should monitor 
the progress of this system through the weekend. This system has 
a medium chance for tropical development within the next 48 
hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia to across 
northern Panama and Costa Rica and to 10N84W to 14N94W to 
low pres near 14N101W 1008 mb to 13N112W to 09N124W to 09N132W
and to 07N140W. Aside from the large area of scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection described in the Special Features 
section above, similar activity is noted within 60 nm either side
of the trough between 108W-113W and within 30 nm south of the 
trough between 85W-88W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
60 nm south of the trough between 123W-126W and within 30 nm of 
the trough between 133W-139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California, with the resulting gradient producing moderate to 
fresh northwest winds north of Punta Eugenia, including 
Guadalupe Island. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range. Light to
gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere to the south and 
southeast with wave heights in the 3-5 ft range. The ridge will 
persist across the area during the next several days with mainly 
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. Seas of 5-7 ft in 
NW swell will continue to affect the waters north of Punta 
Eugenia through Thu.

In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds 
will continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less during the 
remainder of the work-week. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to 
increase to 15-20 kt across the north and central parts of the 
Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient 
tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and 
lower pressures over north-central Mexico. Wave heights are 
expected to build to 4-5 ft with these winds. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the 
offshore waters through the period. Wave heights are in the 3-5 
ft range in a south to southwest swell. Wave heights are 
forecast to build to 6-8 ft in southwest swell across the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the upcoming 
weekend.

A broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche 
and the adjacent land areas will continue to bring heavy 
rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico 
during the next several days. Heavy rainfall could lead to 
flooding and mud slides across the steeper terrain of Central 
America.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnants of former Tropical Depression Carlos continue to 
enhance winds and wave heights mainly from 09N-15N and west of 
134W. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft will follow the low 
as it moves westward through the next few days.

High pressure continues to dominate the waters roughly north of 
20N and west of 120W. As high pressure builds across the 
forecast region, an area of fresh to locally strong northerly 
winds, with wave heights to 9 ft will be over the waters north of
27N between 120W-131W through late tonight, then gradually shift
westward to the northwest part of the area while expanding 
southward from the end of the week into the weekend. Outside of 
the remnants of Carlos, moderate to fresh north to northeast 
winds are present north of 12N and west of 125W. Wave heights 
with these winds are in the range of 5-7 ft.

$$
Aguirre