000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162055
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from 07N-17N between
93W-110W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week while moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10
mph, near the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of 
development, heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the 
Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and 
Jalisco during the next few days, which could cause life- 
threatening flash floods and mud slides. Interests in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. 
This system has a medium chace for tropical development within 
the next 48 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia to across 
northern Panama and Costa Rica and to 10N86W to 15N104W to 
10N127W. A large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is described in the Special Features section above.  
Another area of scattered moderate convection is from 08N-15N 
between 115W-126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California, with the resulting gradient producing moderate to 
fresh northwest winds north of Punta Eugenia, including 
Guadalupe Island. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range. Light to
gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere to the south and 
southeast with wave heights in the 3-5 ft range. The ridge will 
persist across the area during the next several days with mainly 
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. Seas of 5-7 ft in 
NW swell will continue to affect the waters north of Punta 
Eugenia through Thu.

In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds 
will continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less during the 
remainder of the work-week. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to 
increase to 15-20 kt across the north and central parts of the 
Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient 
tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and 
lower pressures over north-central Mexico. Wave heights are 
expected to build to 4-5 ft with these winds. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the 
offshore waters through the period. Wave heights are in the 3-5 
ft range. Wave heights are forecast to build to 6-8 ft in 
southwest swell across the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands during the upcoming weekend.

A broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche 
and southern Mexico will continue to bring heavy rainfall over 
portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next 
several days. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mudslides
across the steeper terrain of Central America.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnants of T.D. Carlos continue to enhance winds/seas mainly
from 09N-15N and west of 134W. Fresh to strong winds and seas to
8 ft will follow the low as it moves westward through the next
few days.

High pressure continues to dominate the waters roughly north of 
20N and west of 120W. As high pressure builds across the 
forecast region, an area of fresh to locally strong northerly 
winds, with wave heights to 9 ft will be over the waters north of
26N between 120W-128W through tonight, then gradually shift 
westward to the northwest part of the area while expanding 
southward from the end of the week into the weekend. Outside of 
the remnants of Carlos, moderate to fresh north to northeast 
winds are present north of 12N and west of 125W. Wave heights 
with these winds are in the range of 5-7 ft.

$$
ERA