908 AXPZ20 KNHC 161944 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, near the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. This system has a medium chace for tropical development within the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia to across northern Panama and Costa Rica and to 10N86W to 15N104W to 10N127W. A large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 90W-110W in association with a broad area of low pressure. Another area of scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 115W-121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, with the resulting gradient producing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia, including Guadalupe Island. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range, except for higher wave heights of 6-8 ft in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere to the south and southeast with wave heights in the 3-5 ft range. A ridge will persist across the area during the next several days with mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. Seas of 6-8 ft in NW swell will continue to affect the waters north of Punta Eugenia through Thu. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less during the remainder of the work-week. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt across the north and central parts of the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and lower pressures over north-central Mexico. Wave heights are expected to build to 4-5 ft with these winds. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a with a broad area of low pressure developing across the area. A low-pressure system is expected to become better organized within the next couple of days, and environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development of this disturbance later this week. A tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, offshore of and parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan during the next few days, and these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the offshore waters through the period. Wave heights are in the 3-5 ft range. Wave heights are forecast to build to 6-8 ft in southwest swell across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the upcoming weekend. A broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico will continue to bring heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mudslides across the steeper terrain of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for the latest details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos. High pressure continues to dominate the waters roughly north of 20N and west of 120W. As high pressure builds across the forecast region, an area of fresh to locally strong northerly winds, with wave heights to 9 ft will be over the waters north of 26N between 118W-128W through tonight, then gradually shift westward to the northwest part of the area while expanding southward from the end of the week into the weekend. In addition, the pressure gradient between the ridge and Carlos will support an area of fresh to strong winds within 240 nm in the northern semicircle of Carlos through early on Thu. Outside of Carlos, mainly moderate to locally fresh north to northeast winds are present from 10N to 22N west of about 125W, except for mainly moderate winds over the northwest part of the area. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 5-7 ft. An area of higher wave heights up to 8 ft is located from 14N to 24N between 126W- 138W. These wave heights will subside by early this evening. $$ ERA