000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Carlos is centered near 09.2N 135.0W at 16/0900 UTC moving W at 06 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a new burst of increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is over and within 60 nm south of the center of Carlos. Carlos is forecast to weaken as it reaches near 09N136W early this afternoon, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The latest NHC forecast calls for Carlos to degenerate into a remnant low later today and dissipate in a few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlos NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 94W north of 03N to across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and inland southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 93W-106W in association with the westward moving tropical wave and a broad area of low pressure. A low pressure system is expected to form along this wave later this week. Environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development of this disturbance later this week, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly northwestward, offshore of and parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across northern Panama and Costa Rica and to 10N86W to 11N92W to 15N103W to 14N112W and to 11N126W. The majority of the convective activity noted is associated with the aforementioned tropical wave and the broad area of low pressure. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 106W-108W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 115W-118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, with the resulting gradient producing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia, including Guadalupe Island. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range, except for higher wave heights of 6-8 ft in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere to the south and southeast with wave heights in the 3-5 ft range. A ridge will persist across the area during the next several days with mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. Seas of 6-8 ft in NW swell will continue to affect the waters north of Punta Eugenia through Thu. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less during the remainder of the work-week. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt across the north and central parts of the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and lower pressures over north-central Mexico. Wave heights are expected to build to 4-5 ft with these winds. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a with a broad area of low pressure and a tropical wave moving through that area. An area of low pressure is expected to form along this wave later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this disturbance later this week, and a tropical depression could over the weekend while the system moves slowly northwestward, offshore of and parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the offshore waters through the period. Wave heights are in the 3-5 ft range. Wave heights are forecast to build to 6-8 ft in southwest swell across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the upcoming weekend. A broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico will continue to bring heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mudslides across the steeper terrain of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for the latest details on Tropical Depression Carlos. High pressure continues to dominate the waters roughly north of 15N and west of 118W. As high pressure builds across the forecast region, an area of fresh to locally strong northerly winds, with wave heights to 9 ft will be over the waters north of 26N between 118W-128W through tonight, then gradually shift westward to the northwest part of the area while expanding southward from the end of the week into the weekend. In addition, the pressure gradient between the ridge and Carlos will support an area of fresh to strong winds within 240 nm in the northern semicircle of Carlos through early on Thu. Outside of Carlos, mainly moderate to locally fresh north to northeast winds are present from 10N to 22N west of about 125W, except for mainly moderate winds over the northwest part of the area. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 5-7 ft. An area of higher wave heights up to 8 ft is located from 14N to 24N between 126W-138W. These wave heights will subside by early this evening. $$ Aguirre