474 AXPZ20 KNHC 152145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Carlos is centered near 9.8N 133.5W at 15/2100 UTC moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 90 nm NE and 60 nm SW quadrants of center. Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlos NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W N of 03N crossing Guatemala. A large area of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 90W and 100W in association with the westward- moving tropical wave and a broad area of low pressure. An area of low pressure is expected to form along this wave later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia across Panama to 11N91W to 16N100W to 1011 mb low pres located near 18N115W to 11N120W to 10N130W, then resumes W of TD Carlos from 09N134W to 07N140W. Most of the convective activity is associated with the aforementioned tropical wave and broad area of low pressure. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 100W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Punta Eugenia, including Guadalupe Island. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range, except 6 to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere to the south and southeast with seas in the 3-5 ft range. A ridge will persist across the area during the next several days with mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas of 6-8 ft in NW swell will continue to affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Thu. In the Gulf of California mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail with wave heights of 3 ft or less during the remainder of the work-week. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt across the north and central parts of the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge W of Baja California peninsula and lower pressures over north-central Mexico. Seas are expected to build to 4-5 ft with these winds. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico and Guatemala is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave and a broad area of low pressure. An area of low pressure is expected to form along this wave later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the offshore waters through the period. Seas are generally in the 3-5 ft range. Seas are forecast to build to 6-8 ft in SW swell across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the upcoming weekend. A broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche will continue to bring heavy rainfall over portions of Central America during the next several days. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mudslides across the steeper terrain of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Carlos. High pressure continues to dominate roughly the waters north of 15N W of 110W. As high pressure builds across the forecast region, an area of fresh to locally strong northerly winds, with building seas of 8-10 ft in NW swell will dominate mainly the waters N of 26N between 118W and 128W tonight through at least Wed night. In addition, the pressure gradient between the ridge and Carlos will support an area of fresh to strong winds on the northern semicircle of Carlos during the next 48 hours. Outside of Carlos, mainly moderate to locally fresh N to NE prevail from 10N to 22N west of about 125W. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted per scatterometer data over the NW waters with seas of 5-6 ft. $$ GR