000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Carlos is centered near 10.0N 132.6W at 15/1500 UTC moving W at 9 kt. A continued westward motion along with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within about 90 nm NE quadrant of center. Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlos NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W/91W N of 03N crossing Guatemala. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia across Panama and southern Costa Rica to 11N91W to 16N100W to 1011 mb low pres near 18N115W to 12N120W to 10N130W, then resumes W of TD Carlos from 09N133W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 15N between 91W and 102W. Similar convection is also within about 60 nm of the Mexican coast roughly between Acapulco and Cabo Corrientes, and also from 20N to 23N E of 108W to the coast of Mexico, including the Marias Islands. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere to the south and southeast. The ridge will build across the area bringing some increase in winds and seas mainly N of Punta Eugenia beginning later today. Seas are forecast to build to 8-9 ft N of 28n between 118W and 124W by this evening. Southeast to south winds are over the Gulf of California along with wave heights of 3 ft or less, with little change expected through Wed. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the offshore waters through the period. Very active weather will continue across the offshore waters through this evening before it begins to gradually shift northward across southern Mexico and adjacent waters. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mudslides across the steeper terrain of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Carlos. Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north of 15N w OF 110W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds, outside those winds associated to Tropical Depression Carlos, from 10N to 20N west of about 125W. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are within the ridge north of 20N and west of 125W with seas of 5-7 ft primarily in NW swell. $$ GR