000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151004 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Carlos is centered near 10.1N 131.8W at 0900 UTC moving west-southwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the earlier noted deep convection has dissipated. Only scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within about 60 nm north of center and northeast of the center from 11N to 12N between 129W- 130W. Carlos is continuing to entrain very dry and stable from its surrounding environment and also is under increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. Carlos will maintain its current motion through tonight, with a gradual slowdown and turn toward the west by Wed. Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlos NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across Panama and southern Costa Rica and to 09N84W to 14N94W to 17N105W to low pres near 17N113W 1011 mb and to 12N124W. The ITCZ axis begins southwest of Carlos at 07N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 94W-98W, and within 90 nm north of the trough between 100W-104W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure ridging extends from near 30N133W to near 26N121W. A large upper-level low lifting northwestward is identified on water vapor imagery to be centered southwest of the southern tip of Baja California near 21N115W. This feature has aided in the weakening of the typical ridging that usually extends across waters of the eastern Pacific, and has produced a broad 1011 mb surface low that is located near 18N113W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue over the offshore waters of Baja Norte, from Punta Eugenia northward. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere to the south and southeast. Large clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms are confined to north of 13N between between 94W-99W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and just offshore the coast of Mexico from near Acapulco to near Manzanillo and just inland the coast from Cabo Corrientes north to 23N. Otherwise, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, however with such a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment in place, expect for this activity to once again increase in coverage late tonight and into Tuesday. The deep-layered low pressure will migrate farther away from Baja California through Wed, allowing for ridging to re- establish itself over the eastern Pacific waters through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is expected to form by late this week a couple of hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Expect increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the forecast offshore waters during this period. Wave heights in the range of 5-8 ft are present offshore of Baja California. Little change is expected with these wave heights through today, at which time freshening northerly winds north of the area will generate new northwest swell moving into the offshore waters, and will introduce wave heights to 9 ft north of about 28N and between 118W-122W. These conditions will spread west-southwest to near 129W by late Wed night. Southeast to south winds are over the Gulf of California along with wave heights of 3 ft or less, with little change expected through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue over the offshore waters through the period. Very active weather will continue across the offshore waters through this evening before it begins to gradually shift northward across southern Mexico and adjacent waters. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mudslides across the steeper terrain of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Carlos. Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north of 10N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds, outside those winds associated to Tropical Depression Carlos, from 09N to 22N west of about 121W. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 6-8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are within the ridge north of 20N and west of 125W. Otherwise, an area of fresh southwest to west winds is defined from about 08N to 11N between 106W-117W per an overnight ASCAT pass. Wave heights there are 8-9 ft as was indicated by and overnight altimeter data pass. These conditions will diminish some Wed. $$ Aguirre