000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150941 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 15 2021 Corrected Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected Tropical Depression Carlos is centered near 10.5N 130.8W at 0300 UTC moving west-southwest at 09 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows deep convection consisting of the scattered moderate to isolated strong type intensity redeveloping from just over the center to within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Carlos is continuing to entrain dry air from its surrounding environment and is under increasing west-southwest vertical shear as well. Carlos is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Tue night as it continues on its current motion through Tue followed by a westward turn through mid-week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlos NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across Panama and southern Costa Rica and to 09N84W to 14N94W to 17N105W to low pres near 17N113W 1011 mb and to 12N124W. The ITCZ axis begins southwest of Carlos at 07N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm north of trough between 95W-98W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of trough between 84W-87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure ridging extends from near 30N135W to 25N117W. A large upper-level low lifting northwestward is identified on water vapor imagery to be centered southwest of the southern tip of Baja California near 21N114W. This feature has aided in the weakening of the typical ridging that usually extends across waters of the eastern Pacific, and has produced a broad 1011 mb surface low that is located near 18N113W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue over the offshore waters of Baja Norte, from Punta Eugenia northward. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere to the south and southeast. The earlier observed scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that were offshore the coast of Mexico have dissipated, with the exception of scattered showers and thunderstorms noted north of 21N and east of 111W to inland Mexico. This activity also covers a portion of southern Baja California. Otherwise, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, however with such a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment in place, expect for this activity to once again increase in coverage late tonight and into Tuesday. The deep-layered low pressure will migrate farther away from Baja California through Wed, allowing for ridging to re- establish itself over the eastern Pacific waters through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is expected to form by late this week a couple of hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Expect increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the forecast offshore waters during this period. Wave heights in the range of 5-8 ft are present offshore of Baja California. Little change is expected with these wave heights through Tue, at which time freshening northerly winds north of the area will generate new northwest swell moving into the offshore waters, and will introduce wave heights to 9 ft north of about 28N and between 118W-122W. Southeast to south winds are over the Gulf of California along with wave heights of 3 ft or less, with little change expected through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are forecast for the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua through Tue evening along with building seas in southwest swell. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds across the offshore waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador have reached the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama and will diminish Tue afternoon. The active weather that occurred over the offshore waters has diminished, but it is expected to return to these waters Tue as the atmospheric remains very moist and unstable. This active weather is expected to continue across the region through Tue before shifting farther northward into southern Mexico. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mudslides across the steeper terrain of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Carlos. Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north of 10N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds, outside those winds associated to Tropical Depression Carlos, from 09N to 21N W of 120W. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 6-8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are within the ridge N of 20N and west of 125W. The weak cold front that moved into the northwest part of the area yesterday has dissipated. Otherwise, an area of fresh southwest to west winds is within the area from about 08N to 12N between 106W and 114W with wave heights of 8-9 ft as indicated by a recent altimeter data pass. These conditions will diminish some Wed. $$ Aguirre