000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlos is centered near 11.3N 128.6W at 1500 UTC moving west-southwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Convection has redeveloped near Carlos this morning, with satellite imagery showing scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 30 nm across the NW and 90 nm across the SE semicircles. Carlos continues to ingest dry and stable air located to its west and this is expected to disrupt any intensification. Carlos is expected to maintain a west to southwestward motion over the next few days, and weaken to a Tropical Depression this evening or tonight, and then become a remnant low by late Tue or Wed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlos NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 09N84W to 14N97W to 13N124W. The ITCZ begins southwest of Carlos at 09N131W and continues to beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Tropical Storm Carlos, scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 03N to 16N between 78W and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted within 180 nm of the Mexican coast from 97W to 112W, and from 09N to 14.5N between 102W and 117W, and within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 132W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure located near 24N135W overnight has collapsed, leaving a weakening ridge extending to near 23N116W. A large upper- level low is noted south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California near 19N112W. This feature has aided in the weakening of the typical ridging that usually extends across waters of the eastern Pacific. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms under a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment are present within 180 nm of the Mexican coast east of 112W, including over southern Baja California and reaching to inland Mexico. Similar activity, in large clusters, is seen from 13N to 19N and east of 103W to along and just inland the coast of Mexico. The low pressure will migrate west-northwestward through Wed allowing for ridging to re-establish itself over the eastern Pacific waters through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is expected to form by late this week a couple of hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system thereafter while it slowly moves northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Expect increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the forecast offshore waters if this transpires. Overnight altimeter data indicated wave heights to 6 and 7 ft offshore Baja California. These conditions will change little through Tue, at which time new northwest swell will introduce wave heights to 8 ft along 30N between 118W-122W. Moderate southeast winds over the southern portion of the Gulf of California will extend gradually spread across the northern part of the Gulf today, then diminish tonight. Wave heights there will be 3 ft or less. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are forecast for the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua through Tue evening along with building seas in southwest swell. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds across the offshore waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador have reached the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama. These winds will diminish Tue afternoon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Carlos. Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north of 15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 09N to 21N W of 120W. Light to gentle variable winds are within the ridge N of 20N and west of 125W. A weak cold front has moved into the northwest part of the area and extends from near 30N130W to west of the area at 25N140W. Light to gentle north to northeasterly winds are behind this front. Latest altimeter data passes indicate wave heights of 4-6 ft north of the front, except for higher wave heights of 5-7 ft north of 25N. The front will will gradually weaken through tonight and dissipate early Tue. Otherwise, an area of fresh southwest to west winds as detected by an overnight scatterometer pass is present from about 08N to 13N between 96W and 119W with wave heights of up to 9 ft. These conditions will change little through mid-week. $$ Stripling